Fukuyama: Russia headed for outright defeat

The bullet points from his article follow. See it for details.

1. Russia is heading for an outright defeat in Ukraine. Russian planning was incompetent.

2. The collapse of their position could be sudden and catastrophic, rather than happening slowly through a war of attrition.

3. There is no diplomatic solution to the war possible prior to this happening.

4. The United Nations Security Council has proven once again to be useless.

5. The Biden administration’s decisions not to declare a no-fly zone or help transfer Polish MiGs were both good ones

6. The only thing that will stop the slaughter is defeat of the Russian army on the ground.

7. Putin will not survive the defeat of his army.

8. The invasion has already done huge damage to populists all over the world [...] The politics of the war has exposed their openly authoritarian leanings.

9. The war to this point has been a good lesson for China.

10. Hopefully Taiwan itself will wake up as to the need to prepare to fight as the Ukrainians have done, and restore conscription.

11. Turkish drones will become bestsellers.

12. A Russian defeat will make possible a 'new birth of freedom,' and get us out of our funk about the declining state of global democracy.