538 on RFK Jr's election effect

They said that Kennedy's endorsement "will have a minimal impact on the race." Nate Silver said that both Harris and Trump gained slightly in the national polling average, Harris still up by about 4%. 538's election forecast has Harris winning in 59% of the simulations. It shows Harris getting 289 electoral votes to Trump's 249. By State, Harris has a 57% chance in PA, 62% chance in WI, 63% change in MI, a 55% chance in AZ, a 54% chance in NV, a 51% chance in NC and a 52% chance in GA. If Harris wins the first 3 States listed above then the odds are strong for the win. The others are just icing on the cake.